It's official. Morgan Stanley has issued a "full US recession" alert.
Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a "perfect storm" for consumers as the housing slump spreads.
In a report "Recession Coming" released today, the bank's US team said the credit crunch had started to inflict serious damage on US companies.
It's not looking very good.
Although the US job market has apparently held up well, an average monthly fall of 138,000 in the number of self-employed workers over the last quarter suggests it may now be buckling. "Consumers face what could be a perfect storm," said Mr Berner.
Like Goldman Sachs, and Lehman Brothers, the bank no longer believes Asia and Europe will come to the rescue as America slows.
(Hat tip to Dupa T. Parrot on DelphiForums for the catch.)
Unlike when the Bush Administration took office and changed the date of the recession that hit our nation early in his pResidency.
But going back and changing a recession date would be extremely rare for the committee, and a potential new cycle-dating method -- using data generated by a private research firm -- could represent a marked change in the way the committee works, according to Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), another private research firm in New York.
"This is complete break from the way recessions are dated," Achuthan said.
Over the course of the Bush Administration's seven year run, many "adjustments" to how numbers are reported and tracked have been made, resulting in numbers that are, IMO, much less trustworthy than ever before, in spite of assurances by Bush Administration officials to the contrary. In many instances, the Bush rhetoric on the economy hasn't matched reality, so why should it start to be more believable now?
In any event, this news -- barely reported in domestic papers, as far I've seen so far -- appears to indicate that things will become evident (and very very bad) before Bush leaves office in 2008, making his Administration's penchance for revisionist history much less likely to succeed.
This time, there will be no doubt that the recession is a Republican recession, resulting from 7-8 years of unchecked fiscal irresponsibility and Republican-dominated economic policy.
On a somewhat related note, see also Carol White's recent ping about hedge funds. Not very encouraging...and Happy Holidays, of course.